{"schemaVersion":"nuwa-record-evidence-1","batchId":"research-2026-10-28","baseSnapshotId":"2026-10-27.3","publication":"published","dossier":{"id":"horizon-assumptions","en":{"takeaway":"Saturation amplifies sensitivity to model assumptions; time-horizon revisions are not capability regressions.","question":"How sensitive are time-horizon estimates to statistical assumptions near saturation?","design":"The authors’ research note examines regularisation corrections, fitted curves, task distribution and human-duration noise, distinguishing sampling uncertainty from model-choice sensitivity.","findings":["Some frontier horizon estimates change materially under plausible modelling choices, particularly as the task suite approaches saturation. A methods correction is not an observed model capability regression."],"interpretation":"Each horizon estimate needs its method version and task distribution. Error bars do not automatically cover model-choice uncertainty, and extrapolation is not observed continuous autonomous runtime.","limits":"The research note has less review than a formal METR blog. Conclusions concern the evaluated task distribution and fitting assumptions.","connections":[],"decisionRelevance":"NUWA recommendation: Use for version and sensitivity notes on the existing Time Horizons record; do not overwrite historical observations."},"zh":{"takeaway":"说明正则化修正、任务分布、拟合曲线与人类时长噪声；合理模型变化对部分前沿估计影响较大。","question":"任务集接近饱和时，统计建模会怎样改变跨度估计？","design":"作者研究笔记比较正则化修正、拟合形式、任务分布和人类时长误差对跨度估计的影响，并区分抽样不确定性与建模选择。","findings":["部分前沿跨度估计在合理建模选择下有明显变化，任务集接近饱和时尤其如此。方法修正不是观察到的模型能力下降。"],"interpretation":"每个跨度点都应绑定方法版本与任务分布。误差条不能自动覆盖所有建模选择，超出任务范围的拟合也不是直接观测到的连续运行时长。","limits":"作者研究笔记经过的审阅少于正式博文；区间反映抽样与模型选择的边界不同。","connections":[],"decisionRelevance":"NUWA 建议：为现有跨度图增加方法修订关系和版本绑定。"},"assertionPolicy":{"findings":"source-finding","interpretation":"nuwa-interpretation","decisionRelevance":"recommendation"},"observations":[],"relatedWorkIds":["time-horizons"],"supplementSourceId":"horizon-assumptions","batchId":"research-2026-10-28","sourceRefs":[{"sourceId":"dr-20261028-horizon-assumptions","url":"https://metr.org/notes/2026-03-20-impact-of-modelling-assumptions-on-time-horizon-results/","title":"Impact of modeling assumptions on time horizon results","locator":"Summary; model correction; uncertainty table; text lines 00043,00069,00240","version":"Original resource captured 2026-10-28T07:24:45.348612+00:00; sha256:9695043f6347be4a67091843e5b34b1db63f1ab11ee6a7956edcf1094182bd20","artifactSha256":"9695043f6347be4a67091843e5b34b1db63f1ab11ee6a7956edcf1094182bd20","textSha256":"8053858d7b4af55de444434325181c6b23a72f9af177724a7a9534cb1d054d22","capturedAt":"2026-10-28T07:24:45.348612+00:00","resourceEdition":"Impact of modeling assumptions on time horizon results - METRSubstacktwitterBluesky"}],"publication":{"state":"published","publishedOn":"2026-10-29","authorizationReference":"user-authorized-global-index-publication-2026-10-29","reviewedCandidateId":"local-6efe31bc4a0c0f37"},"review":{"state":"published-note","sourceScope":"full-text","availableScope":null,"readingCoverage":"selected-original-sections","completePaperAudit":false,"independentEvidenceReview":"pending-human-review","bilingualEditorialReview":"pending-human-review","authorship":"model-assisted-research-note","preparedFingerprint":"1556dcf29f379668f00940cd8e8a5c3d6d61ae71670c701a949a7bc1753085b8"}},"update":null}