{"schemaVersion":"nuwa-record-evidence-1","batchId":"research-2026-10-28","baseSnapshotId":"2026-10-27.3","publication":"published","dossier":{"id":"horizon-limits","en":{"takeaway":"Time horizons do not directly identify research speedup or economic automation.","question":"What separates a time-horizon estimate from research speedup or economic automation?","design":"The authors’ limitations note discusses success probability versus human task duration and the costs of prompting, waiting, checking and repair. It is an interpretation of the metric, not a new labour-substitution experiment.","findings":["A fitted horizon does not directly identify research speedup or economic automation. Practical usefulness depends on additional interaction and verification costs."],"interpretation":"The capability measure informs task feasibility; actual usefulness still requires measurements of use and cost. A duration axis does not cover the context demands of every job.","limits":"The note is bounded by the current task distribution and does not establish effects across all economic work or high-context roles.","connections":[],"decisionRelevance":"NUWA recommendation: Keep capability, usefulness and controllability separate in autonomy narratives and safety arguments."},"zh":{"takeaway":"完成概率对人类任务时长的拟合不能直接转成研发提速；还需测提示、等待、检查和人工修补。","question":"跨度指标与实际劳动替代或研发提速相隔什么？","design":"作者限制说明讨论任务成功概率与人类任务时长的关系，以及提示、等待、检查、人工修补等使用成本。它是指标解释，不是新的劳动替代实验。","findings":["拟合跨度不能直接确定研发提速或经济自动化效果；实际效用还依赖额外交互和验证成本。"],"interpretation":"能力指标可以提供任务可行性证据，实际效用仍需要使用场景和成本测量。不同岗位的上下文需求不能被一个时长轴覆盖。","limits":"研究笔记与当前任务分布；不能覆盖全部经济工作或高语境岗位。","connections":[],"decisionRelevance":"NUWA 建议：补充从任务能力到使用效用的外推假设。"},"assertionPolicy":{"findings":"source-finding","interpretation":"nuwa-interpretation","decisionRelevance":"recommendation"},"observations":[],"relatedWorkIds":["time-horizons"],"supplementSourceId":"horizon-limits","batchId":"research-2026-10-28","sourceRefs":[{"sourceId":"dr-20261028-horizon-limits","url":"https://metr.org/notes/2026-01-22-time-horizon-limitations/","title":"Clarifying limitations of time horizon","locator":"Research note and limitations; text lines 00072","version":"Original resource captured 2026-10-28T07:24:45.640517+00:00; sha256:caec62e207534efe7e6fbcb55bb6a12459264f8591145eef7d9cac011c571860","artifactSha256":"caec62e207534efe7e6fbcb55bb6a12459264f8591145eef7d9cac011c571860","textSha256":"0f1e09f4464b958f7dc0e4588058014c658a026e9579921ab8b7610150ce0187","capturedAt":"2026-10-28T07:24:45.640517+00:00","resourceEdition":"Clarifying limitations of time horizon - METRSubstacktwitterBluesky"}],"publication":{"state":"published","publishedOn":"2026-10-29","authorizationReference":"user-authorized-global-index-publication-2026-10-29","reviewedCandidateId":"local-6efe31bc4a0c0f37"},"review":{"state":"published-note","sourceScope":"full-text","availableScope":null,"readingCoverage":"selected-original-sections","completePaperAudit":false,"independentEvidenceReview":"pending-human-review","bilingualEditorialReview":"pending-human-review","authorship":"model-assisted-research-note","preparedFingerprint":"cc21eb753db77f6ccbd0e0826751b6e8ecdbf544add65b868a0a56c8a2824122"}},"update":null}