NUWA 风险评测 · 研究方法
Expenditure Horizon: Measuring Optimization Ability, with an Application to NanoGPT
NUWA 研究解读 · 独立复核待完成
NUWA Research Note
研究问题研究设计与假设来源发现NUWA 解读局限与相反证据研究与决策意义机构与角色原始资源模型辅助整理 · 选读原始全文或官方文章中的相关章节；尚未完成逐章节审计。
研究速读
NUWA 解读：这是明确劳动假设下的优化经济学示例。
研究问题
自主优化在多少支出下达到估计人类优化水平？
研究设计与假设
NanoGPT speedrun将表现对货币成本建模，人类估计结合贡献者访谈和模型判官，并计入智能体算力与令牌。
来源发现
智能体花费超过一万美元后，示例估计支出时域为0–3千美元。
指标是估计成本表现曲线交点，不是自主持续时长。
NUWA 解读
NUWA 解读：这是明确劳动假设下的优化经济学示例。
局限与相反证据
平滑收益、历史人力估计与污染影响交点，人机混合工作不在指标内。
研究与决策意义
模型建议：报告人力成本假设与曲线不确定性，不换算为自主工作天数。
精确来源位置
- Expenditure Horizon: Measuring Optimization Ability, with an Application to NanoGPT · IntroductionSelected original resource https://metr.org/blog/2026-07-21-expenditure-horizon/; sha256:b852697d512cce8f3e1ab1a4f879449bd3d7e520792e4a2f371bbfd56f524bd4; archived source capture; exact capture time not independently established
- Expenditure Horizon: Measuring Optimization Ability, with an Application to NanoGPT · Estimating the Returns to Human Labor on NanoGPTSelected original resource https://metr.org/blog/2026-07-21-expenditure-horizon/; sha256:b852697d512cce8f3e1ab1a4f879449bd3d7e520792e4a2f371bbfd56f524bd4; archived source capture; exact capture time not independently established
- Expenditure Horizon: Measuring Optimization Ability, with an Application to NanoGPT · Estimating agent expenditure horizonsSelected original resource https://metr.org/blog/2026-07-21-expenditure-horizon/; sha256:b852697d512cce8f3e1ab1a4f879449bd3d7e520792e4a2f371bbfd56f524bd4; archived source capture; exact capture time not independently established
- Expenditure Horizon: Measuring Optimization Ability, with an Application to NanoGPT · Introduction: highlighted limitationsSelected original resource https://metr.org/blog/2026-07-21-expenditure-horizon/; sha256:b852697d512cce8f3e1ab1a4f879449bd3d7e520792e4a2f371bbfd56f524bd4; archived source capture; exact capture time not independently established
来源核查、数据提取、编辑批准与实验复现分别记录。 方法说明 →
机构与角色
引用与复用
引用研究发现时请引用原始出版物；引用 NUWA 的整理与解释时，单独引用本站记录及对应快照。
原始出版物 · BibTeX
@misc{expenditure-horizon,
title = {Expenditure Horizon: Measuring Optimization Ability, with an Application to NanoGPT},
url = {https://metr.org/blog/2026-07-21-expenditure-horizon/},
year = {2026},
date = {2026-07-21},
version = {Source capture 2026-10-25},
note = {Source capture 2026-10-25}
}
NUWA 记录 · BibTeX
@misc{expenditure-horizon-nuwa,
title = {Expenditure Horizon: Measuring Optimization Ability, with an Application to NanoGPT — NUWA research record},
url = {https://whitzard.tech/nuwa/whitzard-index/work/expenditure-horizon/},
version = {2026-10-29.1},
organization = {NUWA Frontier AI Safety Lab},
howpublished = {Retained note edition: https://whitzard.tech/nuwa/whitzard-index/data/record-editions/2026-10-29.1--expenditure-horizon.json},
note = {NUWA research note. Source-reading scope and independent review status are stated on the record. Snapshot 2026-10-29.1. Retained note edition: https://whitzard.tech/nuwa/whitzard-index/data/record-editions/2026-10-29.1--expenditure-horizon.json.}
}
证据快照 2026-10-29.1 · 索引更新 · RSS
参考文献
- [1] Expenditure Horizon: Measuring Optimization Ability, with an Application to NanoGPT. 2026-07-21 ; Official publication masthead and article byline; Introduction; Estimating the Returns to Human Labor on NanoGPT