RISK TRENDS

Track frontier risk evidence

Read the finding, then inspect the measurements. System performance, protocol changes and newly indexed evidence are distinct kinds of change.

Autonomy

Long-horizon capability and the conditions for human control.

Research scope ↗

PUBLISHED EVIDENCE

METR Time Horizons · 50% task-completion horizon

Published measurements across source reports. Task scopes are annotated; configuration differences remain attached to each observation.

Benchmark / metricModel / system

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26 observations · 21 dated

● Matched◇ Configuration differs□ Some conditions undisclosed

5 observations lack a verified model release date. They remain in Data and Systems.

Select a point or table row to inspect its conditions and provenance.

26 observations

Measurements and source conditions
System / model	Result	Condition status	Task / conditions	Evaluator / report	Dates
Claude Mythos Preview (early) · METR scaffoldClaude Mythos Preview (early)	1,044.78 min50% task-completion horizonSource 95% CI [508.876789, 3304.261235] min	Incomplete	METR-Horizon-v1.1mtb/start_metr_task,metr_agents/react; ai_rd_fix_embedding/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react; re_bench_common/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react; metr_tasks_swaa/init_solver,generate; metr_agents/react	METRMETR Time Horizon 1.1 — source data	Release —Report —
Claude Opus 4.6 · METR scaffoldClaude Opus 4.6	718.81 min50% task-completion horizonSource 95% CI [316.685725, 3633.786163] min	Incomplete	METR-Horizon-v1.1mtb/start_metr_task,metr_agents/react; ai_rd_fix_embedding/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react; re_bench_common/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react; metr_tasks_swaa/init_solver,generate; metr_agents/react	METRMETR Time Horizon 1.1 — source data	Release 2026-02-05Report —
Gemini 3.1 Pro · METR scaffoldGemini 3.1 Pro	384.15 min50% task-completion horizonSource 95% CI [233.50073, 694.750898] min	Incomplete	METR-Horizon-v1.1mtb/start_metr_task,triframe_inspect/triframe_agent; ai_rd_fix_embedding/init_solver,use_tools,triframe_inspect/triframe_agent; re_bench_common/init_solver,use_tools,triframe_inspect/triframe_agent; metr_tasks_swaa/init_solver,generate; triframe_inspect/triframe_agent	METRMETR Time Horizon 1.1 — source data	Release 2026-02-19Report —
GPT-5.2 · METR scaffoldGPT-5.2	352.25 min50% task-completion horizonSource 95% CI [198.067494, 815.177445] min	Incomplete	METR-Horizon-v1.1mtb/start_metr_task,triframe_inspect/triframe_agent; ai_rd_fix_embedding/init_solver,use_tools,triframe_inspect/triframe_agent; re_bench_common/init_solver,use_tools,triframe_inspect/triframe_agent; metr_tasks_swaa/init_solver,generate; triframe_inspect/triframe_agent	METRMETR Time Horizon 1.1 — source data	Release 2025-12-11Report —
GPT-5.3-Codex · METR scaffoldGPT-5.3-Codex	349.53 min50% task-completion horizonSource 95% CI [194.913134, 816.351994] min	Incomplete	METR-Horizon-v1.1mtb/start_metr_task,triframe_inspect/triframe_agent; ai_rd_fix_embedding/init_solver,use_tools,triframe_inspect/triframe_agent; re_bench_common/init_solver,use_tools,triframe_inspect/triframe_agent; metr_tasks_swaa/init_solver,generate; triframe_inspect/triframe_agent	METRMETR Time Horizon 1.1 — source data	Release 2026-02-05Report —
GPT-5.4 · METR scaffoldGPT-5.4	341.74 min50% task-completion horizonSource 95% CI [186.581591, 768.779526] min	Incomplete	METR-Horizon-v1.1mtb/start_metr_task,metr_agents/react; ai_rd_fix_embedding/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react; re_bench_common/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react; metr_tasks_swaa/init_solver,generate; metr_agents/react	METRMETR Time Horizon 1.1 — source data	Release 2026-03-05Report —
Claude Opus 4.5 · METR scaffoldClaude Opus 4.5	292.99 min50% task-completion horizonSource 95% CI [161.717714, 623.704698] min	Incomplete	METR-Horizon-v1.1mtb/start_metr_task,metr_agents/react; ai_rd_fix_embedding/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react; re_bench_common/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react; metr_tasks_swaa/init_solver,generate; metr_agents/react	METRMETR Time Horizon 1.1 — source data	Release 2025-11-24Report —
Gemini 3 Pro · METR scaffoldGemini 3 Pro	224.33 min50% task-completion horizonSource 95% CI [139.565157, 379.235434] min	Incomplete	METR-Horizon-v1.1mtb/start_metr_task,metr_agents/react; ai_rd_fix_embedding/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react; re_bench_common/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react; metr_tasks_swaa/init_solver,generate; metr_agents/react	METRMETR Time Horizon 1.1 — source data	Release 2025-11-18Report —
GPT-5.1 Codex Max · METR scaffoldGPT-5.1 Codex Max	223.71 min50% task-completion horizonSource 95% CI [134.31077, 396.206723] min	Incomplete	METR-Horizon-v1.1mtb/start_metr_task,triframe_inspect/triframe_agent; ai_rd_fix_embedding/init_solver,use_tools,triframe_inspect/triframe_agent; re_bench_common/init_solver,use_tools,triframe_inspect/triframe_agent; metr_tasks_swaa/init_solver,generate; triframe_inspect/triframe_agent	METRMETR Time Horizon 1.1 — source data	Release 2025-11-19Report —
GPT-5 · METR scaffoldGPT-5	203.01 min50% task-completion horizonSource 95% CI [112.641357, 405.551565] min	Incomplete	METR-Horizon-v1.1mtb/start_metr_task,triframe_inspect/triframe_agent; ai_rd_fix_embedding/init_solver,use_tools,triframe_inspect/triframe_agent; re_bench_common/init_solver,use_tools,triframe_inspect/triframe_agent; metr_tasks_swaa/init_solver,generate; triframe_inspect/triframe_agent	METRMETR Time Horizon 1.1 — source data	Release 2025-08-07Report —
o3 · METR scaffoldo3	119.73 min50% task-completion horizonSource 95% CI [74.615398, 190.943818] min	Incomplete	METR-Horizon-v1.1mtb/start_metr_task,triframe_inspect/triframe_agent; ai_rd_fix_embedding/init_solver,use_tools,triframe_inspect/triframe_agent; re_bench_common/init_solver,use_tools,triframe_inspect/triframe_agent; metr_tasks_swaa/init_solver,generate; triframe_inspect/triframe_agent	METRMETR Time Horizon 1.1 — source data	Release 2025-04-16Report —
Claude Opus 4.1 · METR scaffoldClaude Opus 4.1	100.47 min50% task-completion horizonSource 95% CI [59.272391, 159.451918] min	Incomplete	METR-Horizon-v1.1mtb/start_metr_task,metr_agents/react; ai_rd_fix_embedding/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react; re_bench_common/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react; metr_tasks_swaa/init_solver,generate; metr_agents/react	METRMETR Time Horizon 1.1 — source data	Release 2025-08-05Report —
Claude Opus 4 · METR scaffoldClaude Opus 4	100.37 min50% task-completion horizonSource 95% CI [59.994073, 163.454074] min	Incomplete	METR-Horizon-v1.1mtb/start_metr_task,metr_agents/react; ai_rd_fix_embedding/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react; re_bench_common/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react; metr_tasks_swaa/init_solver,generate; metr_agents/react	METRMETR Time Horizon 1.1 — source data	Release 2025-05-22Report —
Claude 3.7 Sonnet · METR scaffoldClaude 3.7 Sonnet	60.39 min50% task-completion horizonSource 95% CI [33.006168, 104.226017] min	Incomplete	METR-Horizon-v1.1mtb/start_metr_task,metr_agents/react; ai_rd_fix_embedding/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react; re_bench_common/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react; metr_tasks_swaa/init_solver,generate; metr_agents/react	METRMETR Time Horizon 1.1 — source data	Release 2025-02-24Report —
o1 · METR scaffoldo1	38.83 min50% task-completion horizonSource 95% CI [21.164512, 64.95249] min	Incomplete	METR-Horizon-v1.1mtb/start_metr_task,triframe_inspect/triframe_agent; ai_rd_fix_embedding/init_solver,use_tools,triframe_inspect/triframe_agent; re_bench_common/init_solver,use_tools,triframe_inspect/triframe_agent; metr_tasks_swaa/init_solver,generate; triframe_inspect/triframe_agent	METRMETR Time Horizon 1.1 — source data	Release 2024-12-05Report —
Claude 3.5 Sonnet (October 2024) · METR scaffoldClaude 3.5 Sonnet (October 2024)	20.52 min50% task-completion horizonSource 95% CI [10.144026, 40.82028] min	Incomplete	METR-Horizon-v1.1mtb/start_metr_task,metr_agents/react; ai_rd_fix_embedding/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react; re_bench_common/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react; metr_tasks_swaa/init_solver,generate; metr_agents/react	METRMETR Time Horizon 1.1 — source data	Release 2024-10-22Report —
o1-preview · METR scaffoldo1-preview	20.33 min50% task-completion horizonSource 95% CI [11.716193, 33.379877] min	Incomplete	METR-Horizon-v1.1duet	METRMETR Time Horizon 1.1 — source data	Release 2024-09-12Report —
Claude 3.5 Sonnet (June 2024) · METR scaffoldClaude 3.5 Sonnet (June 2024)	11.4 min50% task-completion horizonSource 95% CI [5.489734, 22.384214] min	Incomplete	METR-Horizon-v1.1mtb/start_metr_task,metr_agents/react; ai_rd_fix_embedding/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react; re_bench_common/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react; metr_tasks_swaa/init_solver,generate; metr_agents/react	METRMETR Time Horizon 1.1 — source data	Release 2024-06-20Report —
GPT-4o · METR scaffoldGPT-4o	6.99 min50% task-completion horizonSource 95% CI [4.001482, 12.905741] min	Incomplete	METR-Horizon-v1.1mtb/start_metr_task,metr_agents/react; ai_rd_fix_embedding/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react; re_bench_common/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react; metr_tasks_swaa/init_solver,generate; metr_agents/react	METRMETR Time Horizon 1.1 — source data	Release 2024-05-13Report —
GPT-4 November 2023 · METR scaffoldGPT-4 November 2023	4.04 min50% task-completion horizonSource 95% CI [1.866859, 8.443226] min	Incomplete	METR-Horizon-v1.1mtb/start_metr_task,metr_agents/react; ai_rd_fix_embedding/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react; re_bench_common/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react; metr_tasks_swaa/init_solver,generate; metr_agents/react	METRMETR Time Horizon 1.1 — source data	Release 2023-11-06Report —
GPT-4 · METR scaffoldGPT-4	3.99 min50% task-completion horizonSource 95% CI [1.93292, 7.995283] min	Incomplete	METR-Horizon-v1.1modular-public	METRMETR Time Horizon 1.1 — source data	Release 2023-03-14Report —
Claude 3 Opus · METR scaffoldClaude 3 Opus	3.95 min50% task-completion horizonSource 95% CI [1.706313, 8.76484] min	Incomplete	METR-Horizon-v1.1mtb/start_metr_task,metr_agents/react; ai_rd_fix_embedding/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react; re_bench_common/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react; metr_tasks_swaa/init_solver,generate; metr_agents/react	METRMETR Time Horizon 1.1 — source data	Release 2024-03-04Report —
GPT-4 Turbo · METR scaffoldGPT-4 Turbo	3.73 min50% task-completion horizonSource 95% CI [1.980046, 6.736613] min	Incomplete	METR-Horizon-v1.1mtb/start_metr_task,metr_agents/react; ai_rd_fix_embedding/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react; re_bench_common/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react; metr_tasks_swaa/init_solver,generate; metr_agents/react	METRMETR Time Horizon 1.1 — source data	Release —Report —
GPT-3.5 Turbo Instruct · METR scaffoldGPT-3.5 Turbo Instruct	0.6 min50% task-completion horizonSource 95% CI [0.255148, 1.115905] min	Incomplete	METR-Horizon-v1.1modular-public	METRMETR Time Horizon 1.1 — source data	Release —Report —
GPT-3 davinci-002 · METR scaffoldGPT-3 davinci-002	0.14 min50% task-completion horizonSource 95% CI [0.093319, 0.221209] min	Incomplete	METR-Horizon-v1.1modular-public	METRMETR Time Horizon 1.1 — source data	Release —Report —
GPT-2 · METR scaffoldGPT-2	0.05 min50% task-completion horizonSource 95% CI [0.009994, 0.141825] min	Incomplete	METR-Horizon-v1.1—	METRMETR Time Horizon 1.1 — source data	Release —Report —

METR Time Horizon 1.1: the source is no longer actively updated (last update: 8 September 2026). Estimates above 16 hours exceed its reliable measurement range.

NUWA Analysis · Source-based analysis

Longer tasks, a narrower measurement margin

01
The series reaches longer tasks
METR reports a 50% task horizon of 3.99 minutes for GPT-4 and 718.81 minutes for Claude Opus 4.6. These are estimates of human-expert task duration.
Source finding
2 supporting observations
- GPT-4 · METR scaffold · METR-Horizon-v1.1 · results.gpt_4
- Claude Opus 4.6 · METR scaffold · METR-Horizon-v1.1 · results.claude_opus_4_6_inspect
Task-Completion Time Horizons of Frontier AI Models · METR Time Horizon 1.1; p50/p95 uncertainty; task-suite extrapolation warning
METR Time Horizon 1.1 — source data · METR Time Horizon 1.1; p50/p95 uncertainty; task-suite extrapolation warning
Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Software Tasks · §§2–4; Appendix B.2 and E.3
02
Upper estimates approach the task suite’s limit
Opus 4.6’s reported 95% interval spans 316.69–3,633.79 minutes. METR identifies estimates above 16 hours as unreliable with this task suite.
Source finding
1 supporting observations
- Claude Opus 4.6 · METR scaffold · METR-Horizon-v1.1 · results.claude_opus_4_6_inspect
Task-Completion Time Horizons of Frontier AI Models · METR Time Horizon 1.1; p50/p95 uncertainty; task-suite extrapolation warning
METR Time Horizon 1.1 — source data · METR Time Horizon 1.1; p50/p95 uncertainty; task-suite extrapolation warning
Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Software Tasks · §§2–4; Appendix B.2 and E.3
03
Control requires its own evidence
This series measures task capability. The next useful link is shutdown, supervision and replication evidence for the same model and configuration.
Research recommendation
RepliBench: Evaluating the Autonomous Replication Capabilities of Language Model Agents · Distinct replication and intervention endpoints; not matched comparisons
Shutdown resistance in reasoning models · Distinct replication and intervention endpoints; not matched comparisons

Read the research brief →

Evidence snapshot 2026-10-28.2 · 2026-10-27
Interpretation covers the stated evidence set; chart filters select a subset.

Next research question

Measure task completion and response to intervention on the same model, configuration and task distribution; identify absent joint measurements before planning experiments.

Explore model evidence →