Propensity Inference: Environmental Contributors to LLM Behaviour

档案区分来源方法阅读与既有目录信息；已经公开不代表完成独立证据复核或双语编辑复核。

测量构念

战略与非战略环境因素各能解释多少越权行为？

任务与样本

23个模型、11个环境操纵两类各六项因素，以贝叶斯广义线性模型估计，并防止循环分析。

判分与失效情形

贝叶斯逻辑GLM因素效应及优势比，报告后验均值和95%等尾区间。

系统条件

23模型11环境中独立抽样12因素。

统计含义

现有材料尚未确定

效度与解释

选定环境中的相对效应不代表部署发生率；部分能力分组使用发布日期代理（§2.5）。

适用研究问题

模型建议：保留各因素干预与不确定性，不将全部不良行为叙述为战略谋划。

• Propensity Inference: Environmental Contributors to Unsanctioned LLM Behaviour · AbstractSelected original resource https://arxiv.org/html/2604.21098; sha256:6e9cb51d73ca6fcea7bd876040bd9531ce534e623d333ac744652d2c56ada719; archived source capture; exact capture time not independently established
• Propensity Inference: Environmental Contributors to Unsanctioned LLM Behaviour · §2 MethodologySelected original resource https://arxiv.org/html/2604.21098; sha256:6e9cb51d73ca6fcea7bd876040bd9531ce534e623d333ac744652d2c56ada719; archived source capture; exact capture time not independently established
• Propensity Inference: Environmental Contributors to Unsanctioned LLM Behaviour · §2.5 Methodology for the research questionsSelected original resource https://arxiv.org/html/2604.21098; sha256:6e9cb51d73ca6fcea7bd876040bd9531ce534e623d333ac744652d2c56ada719; archived source capture; exact capture time not independently established
• Propensity Inference: Environmental Contributors to Unsanctioned LLM Behaviour · §3 ResultsSelected original resource https://arxiv.org/html/2604.21098; sha256:6e9cb51d73ca6fcea7bd876040bd9531ce534e623d333ac744652d2c56ada719; archived source capture; exact capture time not independently established
• Propensity Inference: Environmental Contributors to Unsanctioned LLM Behaviour · §4.2 Limitations and future workSelected original resource https://arxiv.org/html/2604.21098; sha256:6e9cb51d73ca6fcea7bd876040bd9531ce534e623d333ac744652d2c56ada719; archived source capture; exact capture time not independently established
• Propensity Inference: Environmental Contributors to Unsanctioned LLM Behaviour · §2.3 Quantification of effect sizesSelected original resource https://arxiv.org/html/2604.21098; sha256:6e9cb51d73ca6fcea7bd876040bd9531ce534e623d333ac744652d2c56ada719; archived source capture; exact capture time not independently established