追踪前沿风险证据

AnthropicGoogle DeepMindOpenAI

5 条观测尚无已核实的模型发布日期，可在数据与系统结果中查看。

26 条观测

测量值与来源条件

系统／模型	结果	条件状态	任务／条件	评测方／报告	日期
Claude Mythos Preview (early) · METR scaffoldClaude Mythos Preview (early)	1,044.78 min50% 成功率任务跨度Source 95% CI [508.876789, 3304.261235] min	条件不完整	METR-Horizon-v1.1mtb/start_metr_task,metr_agents/react; ai_rd_fix_embedding/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react; re_bench_common/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react; metr_tasks_swaa/init_solver,generate; metr_agents/react	METRMETR Time Horizon 1.1 — source data	发布 —报告 —
Claude Opus 4.6 · METR scaffoldClaude Opus 4.6	718.81 min50% 成功率任务跨度Source 95% CI [316.685725, 3633.786163] min	条件不完整	METR-Horizon-v1.1mtb/start_metr_task,metr_agents/react; ai_rd_fix_embedding/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react; re_bench_common/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react; metr_tasks_swaa/init_solver,generate; metr_agents/react	METRMETR Time Horizon 1.1 — source data	发布 2026-02-05报告 —
Gemini 3.1 Pro · METR scaffoldGemini 3.1 Pro	384.15 min50% 成功率任务跨度Source 95% CI [233.50073, 694.750898] min	条件不完整	METR-Horizon-v1.1mtb/start_metr_task,triframe_inspect/triframe_agent; ai_rd_fix_embedding/init_solver,use_tools,triframe_inspect/triframe_agent; re_bench_common/init_solver,use_tools,triframe_inspect/triframe_agent; metr_tasks_swaa/init_solver,generate; triframe_inspect/triframe_agent	METRMETR Time Horizon 1.1 — source data	发布 2026-02-19报告 —
GPT-5.2 · METR scaffoldGPT-5.2	352.25 min50% 成功率任务跨度Source 95% CI [198.067494, 815.177445] min	条件不完整	METR-Horizon-v1.1mtb/start_metr_task,triframe_inspect/triframe_agent; ai_rd_fix_embedding/init_solver,use_tools,triframe_inspect/triframe_agent; re_bench_common/init_solver,use_tools,triframe_inspect/triframe_agent; metr_tasks_swaa/init_solver,generate; triframe_inspect/triframe_agent	METRMETR Time Horizon 1.1 — source data	发布 2025-12-11报告 —
GPT-5.3-Codex · METR scaffoldGPT-5.3-Codex	349.53 min50% 成功率任务跨度Source 95% CI [194.913134, 816.351994] min	条件不完整	METR-Horizon-v1.1mtb/start_metr_task,triframe_inspect/triframe_agent; ai_rd_fix_embedding/init_solver,use_tools,triframe_inspect/triframe_agent; re_bench_common/init_solver,use_tools,triframe_inspect/triframe_agent; metr_tasks_swaa/init_solver,generate; triframe_inspect/triframe_agent	METRMETR Time Horizon 1.1 — source data	发布 2026-02-05报告 —
GPT-5.4 · METR scaffoldGPT-5.4	341.74 min50% 成功率任务跨度Source 95% CI [186.581591, 768.779526] min	条件不完整	METR-Horizon-v1.1mtb/start_metr_task,metr_agents/react; ai_rd_fix_embedding/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react; re_bench_common/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react; metr_tasks_swaa/init_solver,generate; metr_agents/react	METRMETR Time Horizon 1.1 — source data	发布 2026-03-05报告 —
Claude Opus 4.5 · METR scaffoldClaude Opus 4.5	292.99 min50% 成功率任务跨度Source 95% CI [161.717714, 623.704698] min	条件不完整	METR-Horizon-v1.1mtb/start_metr_task,metr_agents/react; ai_rd_fix_embedding/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react; re_bench_common/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react; metr_tasks_swaa/init_solver,generate; metr_agents/react	METRMETR Time Horizon 1.1 — source data	发布 2025-11-24报告 —
Gemini 3 Pro · METR scaffoldGemini 3 Pro	224.33 min50% 成功率任务跨度Source 95% CI [139.565157, 379.235434] min	条件不完整	METR-Horizon-v1.1mtb/start_metr_task,metr_agents/react; ai_rd_fix_embedding/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react; re_bench_common/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react; metr_tasks_swaa/init_solver,generate; metr_agents/react	METRMETR Time Horizon 1.1 — source data	发布 2025-11-18报告 —
GPT-5.1 Codex Max · METR scaffoldGPT-5.1 Codex Max	223.71 min50% 成功率任务跨度Source 95% CI [134.31077, 396.206723] min	条件不完整	METR-Horizon-v1.1mtb/start_metr_task,triframe_inspect/triframe_agent; ai_rd_fix_embedding/init_solver,use_tools,triframe_inspect/triframe_agent; re_bench_common/init_solver,use_tools,triframe_inspect/triframe_agent; metr_tasks_swaa/init_solver,generate; triframe_inspect/triframe_agent	METRMETR Time Horizon 1.1 — source data	发布 2025-11-19报告 —
GPT-5 · METR scaffoldGPT-5	203.01 min50% 成功率任务跨度Source 95% CI [112.641357, 405.551565] min	条件不完整	METR-Horizon-v1.1mtb/start_metr_task,triframe_inspect/triframe_agent; ai_rd_fix_embedding/init_solver,use_tools,triframe_inspect/triframe_agent; re_bench_common/init_solver,use_tools,triframe_inspect/triframe_agent; metr_tasks_swaa/init_solver,generate; triframe_inspect/triframe_agent	METRMETR Time Horizon 1.1 — source data	发布 2025-08-07报告 —
o3 · METR scaffoldo3	119.73 min50% 成功率任务跨度Source 95% CI [74.615398, 190.943818] min	条件不完整	METR-Horizon-v1.1mtb/start_metr_task,triframe_inspect/triframe_agent; ai_rd_fix_embedding/init_solver,use_tools,triframe_inspect/triframe_agent; re_bench_common/init_solver,use_tools,triframe_inspect/triframe_agent; metr_tasks_swaa/init_solver,generate; triframe_inspect/triframe_agent	METRMETR Time Horizon 1.1 — source data	发布 2025-04-16报告 —
Claude Opus 4.1 · METR scaffoldClaude Opus 4.1	100.47 min50% 成功率任务跨度Source 95% CI [59.272391, 159.451918] min	条件不完整	METR-Horizon-v1.1mtb/start_metr_task,metr_agents/react; ai_rd_fix_embedding/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react; re_bench_common/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react; metr_tasks_swaa/init_solver,generate; metr_agents/react	METRMETR Time Horizon 1.1 — source data	发布 2025-08-05报告 —
Claude Opus 4 · METR scaffoldClaude Opus 4	100.37 min50% 成功率任务跨度Source 95% CI [59.994073, 163.454074] min	条件不完整	METR-Horizon-v1.1mtb/start_metr_task,metr_agents/react; ai_rd_fix_embedding/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react; re_bench_common/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react; metr_tasks_swaa/init_solver,generate; metr_agents/react	METRMETR Time Horizon 1.1 — source data	发布 2025-05-22报告 —
Claude 3.7 Sonnet · METR scaffoldClaude 3.7 Sonnet	60.39 min50% 成功率任务跨度Source 95% CI [33.006168, 104.226017] min	条件不完整	METR-Horizon-v1.1mtb/start_metr_task,metr_agents/react; ai_rd_fix_embedding/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react; re_bench_common/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react; metr_tasks_swaa/init_solver,generate; metr_agents/react	METRMETR Time Horizon 1.1 — source data	发布 2025-02-24报告 —
o1 · METR scaffoldo1	38.83 min50% 成功率任务跨度Source 95% CI [21.164512, 64.95249] min	条件不完整	METR-Horizon-v1.1mtb/start_metr_task,triframe_inspect/triframe_agent; ai_rd_fix_embedding/init_solver,use_tools,triframe_inspect/triframe_agent; re_bench_common/init_solver,use_tools,triframe_inspect/triframe_agent; metr_tasks_swaa/init_solver,generate; triframe_inspect/triframe_agent	METRMETR Time Horizon 1.1 — source data	发布 2024-12-05报告 —
Claude 3.5 Sonnet (October 2024) · METR scaffoldClaude 3.5 Sonnet (October 2024)	20.52 min50% 成功率任务跨度Source 95% CI [10.144026, 40.82028] min	条件不完整	METR-Horizon-v1.1mtb/start_metr_task,metr_agents/react; ai_rd_fix_embedding/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react; re_bench_common/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react; metr_tasks_swaa/init_solver,generate; metr_agents/react	METRMETR Time Horizon 1.1 — source data	发布 2024-10-22报告 —
o1-preview · METR scaffoldo1-preview	20.33 min50% 成功率任务跨度Source 95% CI [11.716193, 33.379877] min	条件不完整	METR-Horizon-v1.1duet	METRMETR Time Horizon 1.1 — source data	发布 2024-09-12报告 —
Claude 3.5 Sonnet (June 2024) · METR scaffoldClaude 3.5 Sonnet (June 2024)	11.4 min50% 成功率任务跨度Source 95% CI [5.489734, 22.384214] min	条件不完整	METR-Horizon-v1.1mtb/start_metr_task,metr_agents/react; ai_rd_fix_embedding/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react; re_bench_common/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react; metr_tasks_swaa/init_solver,generate; metr_agents/react	METRMETR Time Horizon 1.1 — source data	发布 2024-06-20报告 —
GPT-4o · METR scaffoldGPT-4o	6.99 min50% 成功率任务跨度Source 95% CI [4.001482, 12.905741] min	条件不完整	METR-Horizon-v1.1mtb/start_metr_task,metr_agents/react; ai_rd_fix_embedding/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react; re_bench_common/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react; metr_tasks_swaa/init_solver,generate; metr_agents/react	METRMETR Time Horizon 1.1 — source data	发布 2024-05-13报告 —
GPT-4 November 2023 · METR scaffoldGPT-4 November 2023	4.04 min50% 成功率任务跨度Source 95% CI [1.866859, 8.443226] min	条件不完整	METR-Horizon-v1.1mtb/start_metr_task,metr_agents/react; ai_rd_fix_embedding/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react; re_bench_common/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react; metr_tasks_swaa/init_solver,generate; metr_agents/react	METRMETR Time Horizon 1.1 — source data	发布 2023-11-06报告 —
GPT-4 · METR scaffoldGPT-4	3.99 min50% 成功率任务跨度Source 95% CI [1.93292, 7.995283] min	条件不完整	METR-Horizon-v1.1modular-public	METRMETR Time Horizon 1.1 — source data	发布 2023-03-14报告 —
Claude 3 Opus · METR scaffoldClaude 3 Opus	3.95 min50% 成功率任务跨度Source 95% CI [1.706313, 8.76484] min	条件不完整	METR-Horizon-v1.1mtb/start_metr_task,metr_agents/react; ai_rd_fix_embedding/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react; re_bench_common/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react; metr_tasks_swaa/init_solver,generate; metr_agents/react	METRMETR Time Horizon 1.1 — source data	发布 2024-03-04报告 —
GPT-4 Turbo · METR scaffoldGPT-4 Turbo	3.73 min50% 成功率任务跨度Source 95% CI [1.980046, 6.736613] min	条件不完整	METR-Horizon-v1.1mtb/start_metr_task,metr_agents/react; ai_rd_fix_embedding/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react; re_bench_common/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react; metr_tasks_swaa/init_solver,generate; metr_agents/react	METRMETR Time Horizon 1.1 — source data	发布 —报告 —
GPT-3.5 Turbo Instruct · METR scaffoldGPT-3.5 Turbo Instruct	0.6 min50% 成功率任务跨度Source 95% CI [0.255148, 1.115905] min	条件不完整	METR-Horizon-v1.1modular-public	METRMETR Time Horizon 1.1 — source data	发布 —报告 —
GPT-3 davinci-002 · METR scaffoldGPT-3 davinci-002	0.14 min50% 成功率任务跨度Source 95% CI [0.093319, 0.221209] min	条件不完整	METR-Horizon-v1.1modular-public	METRMETR Time Horizon 1.1 — source data	发布 —报告 —
GPT-2 · METR scaffoldGPT-2	0.05 min50% 成功率任务跨度Source 95% CI [0.009994, 0.141825] min	条件不完整	METR-Horizon-v1.1—	METRMETR Time Horizon 1.1 — source data	发布 —报告 —

结合任务范围与运行配置解读结果。

METR Time Horizon 1.1 来源已停止积极更新，最后更新于 2026 年 9 月 8 日。超过 16 小时的估计超出其可靠测量范围。