Risk Evaluation · Method

Clarifying limitations of time horizon

NUWA research note · independent review pending

First published: 2026-01-22Source checked: 2026-10-28

Original source ↗Cite this record ↓Autonomy →

NUWA Research Note

Research question Design and assumptions Source findings NUWA interpretation Limits and contrary evidence Research and decision relevance Evidence update Institutions and roles Original resources

Model-assisted reading · Selected sections of the original full text or official article; a complete section-by-section audit remains pending.

At a glance

Time horizons do not directly identify research speedup or economic automation.

Research question

What separates a time-horizon estimate from research speedup or economic automation?

Design and assumptions

The authors’ limitations note discusses success probability versus human task duration and the costs of prompting, waiting, checking and repair. It is an interpretation of the metric, not a new labour-substitution experiment.

Source findings

A fitted horizon does not directly identify research speedup or economic automation. Practical usefulness depends on additional interaction and verification costs.

NUWA interpretation

The capability measure informs task feasibility; actual usefulness still requires measurements of use and cost. A duration axis does not cover the context demands of every job.

Limits and contrary evidence

The note is bounded by the current task distribution and does not establish effects across all economic work or high-context roles.

Research and decision relevance

NUWA recommendation: Keep capability, usefulness and controllability separate in autonomy narratives and safety arguments.

Precise source locations

Clarifying limitations of time horizon · Research note and limitations; text lines 00072Original resource captured 2026-10-28T07:24:45.640517+00:00; sha256:caec62e207534efe7e6fbcb55bb6a12459264f8591145eef7d9cac011c571860

Source checking, extraction, editorial approval and replication are recorded separately. Methodology →

Evidence update · 2026-10-28

Model-assisted reading · independent evidence and bilingual editorial review pending. Values are source findings or inventory counts, separate from the trend result series.

Institutions and roles

Published by METR

Cite and reuse

Cite the original publication for its findings. Cite this NUWA record separately for its explanation and retained snapshot.

BibTeX ↓RIS ↓Record + source metadata · JSON ↓Reading coverage · JSON Suggest a correction

Original publication · BibTeX

@misc{horizon-limits,
  title = {Clarifying limitations of time horizon},
  url = {https://metr.org/notes/2026-01-22-time-horizon-limitations/},
  year = {2026},
  date = {2026-01-22},
  version = {Original resource captured 2026-10-28T07:24:45.640517+00:00; sha256:caec62e207534efe7e6fbcb55bb6a12459264f8591145eef7d9cac011c571860},
  note = {Original resource captured 2026-10-28T07:24:45.640517+00:00; sha256:caec62e207534efe7e6fbcb55bb6a12459264f8591145eef7d9cac011c571860}
}

NUWA record · BibTeX

@misc{horizon-limits-nuwa,
  title = {Clarifying limitations of time horizon — NUWA research record},
  url = {https://whitzard.tech/en/nuwa/whitzard-index/work/horizon-limits/},
  version = {2026-10-29.1},
  organization = {NUWA Frontier AI Safety Lab},
  howpublished = {Retained note edition: https://whitzard.tech/nuwa/whitzard-index/data/record-editions/2026-10-29.1--horizon-limits.json},
  note = {NUWA research note. Source-reading scope and independent review status are stated on the record. Snapshot 2026-10-29.1. Retained note edition: https://whitzard.tech/nuwa/whitzard-index/data/record-editions/2026-10-29.1--horizon-limits.json.}
}

Evidence snapshot 2026-10-29.1 · Index updates · RSS

References

[1] Clarifying limitations of time horizon. 2026-01-22 ; Research note and limitations; text lines 00072

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